The Short Names

Mobile internet usage is “bigger and will be bigger than most think,” according to Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker’s bullish prediction.  Presenting her report on internet trends and the economy at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco on Tuesday, she said the overall tech industry was in recovery, and predicted that the mobile internet was the “next major computing cycle,” based on what she called the “explosive Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) iPhone / iTouch ramp.” Mobile internet usage, Meeker predicts, will “surprise to upside for years to come.”

One especially promising finding in Meeker’s report was that unlike on the wired internet, users “tend to pay” on the mobile internet for premium services, which aside form the usual ringtones and wallpapers, includes games, videos and music. Indeed, 54 percent of revenues generated by the mobile internet in 2008 came from users paying for digital content. The bad news is that bandwidth suppliers—that is telco and cable companies, will “face serious challenges” in managing their traffic, something that’s already been seen with AT&T’s struggle to cope with the surge in data traffic that iPhone users brought the network.

More Key Mobile Themes:

—Location-based services is the “key” or the “secret sauce” to the mobile internet

—Near term, Apple is “driving the platform change to mobile computing.” Its mobile ecosystem market share / impact “should surprise on upside” for at least the next 1-2 years. Long term, emerging markets competition, open mobile web (paced by likes of Google (NSDQ: GOOG) Android) and carrier limitations pose challenges.

—Social Networking and mobile are driving “unprecedented change” in communications and commerce. Mobile devices to become “remote controls” for “ever-expanding
types of real-time cloud-based services, including location-based services.

—Look to Japan and desktop internet business models for “significant runways for mobile online commerce, paid services, and advertising monetization.” Data access may a revenue generator now, but is “likely to lose” its relative revenue share in the future.

Mary Meeker’s Internet Presentation 2009